Despite average rainfall over East Africa, risk of flooding remains high in Sudan and Ethiopia

Africa Weather Hazards

1. and below-normal rainfall in August and early September has produced moderate to large moisture deficits in parts of southern Burkina Faso and northern Ghana.

2. Below-average rain over the past three months has resulted in poor ground conditions in the Western Cape province of South Africa.

3. Consistent rainfall during the past several weeks has resulted in moisture surpluses across eastern Sudan and western Ethiopia. The forecast rain over western Ethiopia next week could potentially trigger flooding downstream.

4. Recent heavy showers and strong winds have caused flooding and damaged infrastructures over the Durban area of South Africa. The additional rain is forecast.

On Monday 16 October 2017 the Council adopted the EU Annual Report on Human Rights And Democracy in the World in 2016.

2016 was a challenging year for human rights and democracy, with a shrinking space for civil society and complex humanitarian and political crises emerging. In this context, the European Union showed leadership and remained strongly committed to promote and protect human rights and democracy across the world.

This report gives a broad picture of the EU's human rights efforts towards third countries in 2016, and encompasses two parts: The first part is thematic, and pays particular attention to the human rights approach to conflicts and crises, main human rights challenges and human rights throughout EU external policies. The second part is geographical and covers EU actions in third countries, thus mapping in detail the human rights situation across the globe.

Moisture deficits in the Greater Horn of Africa could indicate delayed onset of seasonal rains

Africa Weather Hazards

1. Poorly-distributed rainfall during August and early September has delayed crop development over parts of southern Burkina Faso and northern Ghana. Below-average rain is forecast next week, which further reduces the chance for recovery.

2. An abnormal heat polygon is posted across portions of Botswana, Zambia, Zimbabwe, and Mozambique, where surface temperatures are forecast to range 4-8°C above average and maximum temperatures could exceed 40°C.

Moisture deficits continue to grow in eastern Ethiopia, Somalia, and Kenya

Africa Weather Hazards

1. Moisture deficits have grown in eastern Ethiopia, southern and central Somalia, and northeastern Kenya due to poor rainfall since late September. Over central and southern Somalia, a dry weather pattern is forecast, which could worsen conditions on the ground.

Key messages

• International prices of wheat increased in September mostly because of weather-related concerns, while maize quotations fell further on crop harvest pressure. International rice prices remained generally firm, supported by seasonally tight availabilities of fragrant rice and strong demand for higher quality Indica supplies.

• In East Africa, prices of cereals remained at levels above those of a year earlier in most countries, particularly in Ethiopia reflecting seasonal tightness amid concerns over the impact of the Fall Armyworm infestation on the main harvest and in South Sudan mainly due to the ongoing conflict.

• In Asia, prices of rice in Bangladesh increased again in September and reached record highs, with seasonal patterns exacerbated by the reduced 2017 main season output and concerns over the impact of the July-August floods on the second season crop, to be harvested from November.

Key Messages

• In West Africa, regional staple food production during the 2016/17 marketing year was well above average. International imports along with institutional subsidized sales supported market supplies. Prices were stable at seasonally high levels as the marketing year concluded in September. Pastoral conditions improved in the eastern and central marketing basins. Market anomalies remain concentrated in the eastern marketing basin, including but not limited to: conflict-related market disruptions in the Lake Chad basin, localized above-average grain deficits in Niger, and trade disruptions related to the depreciation of the Naira and various government measures.

• In East Africa, maize supplies are generally below-average, causing above-average prices across most of the region. Staple food price levels are especially high in South Sudan. Markets remain severely disrupted by insecurity and significant macro-economic issues in Yemen and South Sudan, impeding staple food supply access. Harvests are coming to an edn in Somalia, Tanzania and Uganda, and are about to begin in Kenya. Supplies are seasonally low in Ethiopia and Sudan as the lean season progresses.

• In Southern Africa, maize availability is average to above average following recent above average regional harvests. After reaching very high levels in 2016, maize prices followed seasonal trends in August and are at or below their respective 2016 and average levels many areas. Maize grain is generally able to circulate between surplus and deficit areas without major trade restrictions. Export parity prices are competitive, encouraging exports to East Africa (from Zambia, South Africa, and Malawi) and international markets (from South Africa).

• In Central America, markets remain well supplied as the main maize harvest (Primera season) continued and is estimated to be average to above-average. Maize and bean prices were generally seasonally stable or decreasing, and near or below average levels across the region. In Haiti, local maize and bean supplies began tightening with the start of été season planting. Imported rice prices were mostly stable while the Haitian gourde experienced a moderate depreciation against the USD.

• Central Asia sustained adequate supplies. Wheat prices generally remained stable in the region but declined slightly in exporting countries. The main harvest is nearly complete and production forecasts remain largely unchanged from last month.

• **International **staple food markets remain well supplied. Rice and maize prices fell, wheat prices were generally firm, while soybean prices increased. Crude oil prices rose for the second consecutive month to levels above September 2016 prices.

About Price Watch

Price Watch offers a monthly summary and outlook on global, regional and national trends of key commodity prices in FEWS NET countries. Analysis may touch on global issues, such as fuel prices or exchange rates, if they are likely to influence staple food prices in FEWS NET countries. The accompanying Price Watch Annex details price trends by country.

Despite a recent improvement in seasonal rainfall, dryness remains in Somalia, Kenya, and Ethiopia

Africa Weather Hazards

1. Increased seasonal rainfall was recorded in Somalia and northeastern Kenya, helping to mitigate early-season moisture deficits, although dryness remains. Average to above-average rainfall forecast in mid- November is expected to continue to provide relief to the region.

2. Heavy rainfall continues to sustain the risk for flooding in southeastern Kenya and northeastern Tanzania.

Key messages

• The benchmark US wheat price declined in October mostly because of higher supply prospects while maize quotations firmed due to rain-induced harvest delays. International rice prices strengthened in October, mainly reflecting seasonally tight Japonica and fragrant supplies.

• In East and West Africa, cereal prices declined in October with the 2017 ongoing or recently-started harvests. However, concerns over crop outputs and civil insecurity kept prices at high levels in some countries, particularly in Ethiopia, Nigeria and South Sudan.

• In Central America, heavy rains in October led to unseasonal increases in maize and bean prices. They remained, however, at levels well below those a year earlier as a result of adequate domestic supplies, following the overall good outputs in 2016 and the 2017 first season harvests.

Continued heavy rains in November bring relief to dryness in East Africa

Africa Weather Hazards

1. Since late October, above-average rainfall has mitigated moisture deficits across Somalia and eastern Kenya. However, dryness remains in parts of the northern Somali region of eastern Ethiopia.
   
2. Below-average rainfall since mid-October have resulted in considerable moisture deficits across parts of the Free State, Gauteng, and Mpumalanga regions of South Africa and in Lesotho and Swaziland.

CONTENTS

1. Measuring irregular migration: Innovative data practices
   Solon Ardittis and Frank Laczko

2. Measuring unsafe migration: The challenge of collecting accurate data on migrant fatalities
   Ann Singleton, Frank Laczko and Julia Black

3. A new approach: Displacement Tracking Matrix Comprehensive Migration Flows Survey Model
   Michelle Münstermann and Vivianne van der Vorst

4. Measuring irregular migration in the context of Afghanistan
   Linnea Lue Kessing and Ruta Nimkar

5. Methodological approaches in human smuggling research: Documenting irregular migration facilitation in the Americas and the Middle East
   Luigi Achilli and Gabriella Sanchez

6. Data sets on irregular migration and irregular migrants in the European Union
   Michele Vespe, Fabrizio Natale and Luca Pappalardo

7. Migrants’ vulnerability to human trafficking and exploitation in the irregular migration context of the Mediterranean routes
   Eliza Galos, Harry Cook and Laura Bartolini

8. Circular migration and the need to define and measure it
   Bernd Parusel

9. Publications

*Despite improvement in early season rainfall, Southern Africa continues to report moisture deficit *

Africa Weather Hazards

1. Above-average seasonal rainfall during early November has helped to alleviate early season moisture deficits across Somalia and eastern Kenya.
   However, dryness remains in parts of the northern Somali region of eastern Ethiopia. Moisture recovery is unlikely in the northern region, as seasonal rains are expected to be concentrated towards the south through November.

2. Below-average low rainfall since mid-October has resulted in considerable moisture deficits across several provinces of South Africa and in Lesotho and Swaziland.

3. Although rainfall has improved in some areas of southern Madagascar in mid-November, many local areas in the south continue to report seasonal moisture deficits.

Despite recent rainfall, dryness remains in parts of South Africa and Madagascar

Africa Weather Hazards

1. Seasonal rainfall during early November has helped alleviate early season moisture deficits across Somalia and eastern Kenya. However, deficits in southern Somalia and eastern Kenya remain.
   The forecast below-average rain next week is likely strengthen moisture deficits.

2. Unusually low rainfall since mid-October has resulted in large moisture deficits across several provinces of South Africa, Lesotho, and Swaziland. The continuation of poor rainfall may adversely impact ongoing cropping activities in the region.

3. Although rainfall has improved in some areas of southern Madagascar since mid-November, negative vegetation conditions are still widely recorded.

4. Abundant rain is forecast over east-central South Africa, increasing potential for flash flooding over parts of the Free State, Gauteng, Mpumalanga, and KwaZulu-Natal provinces next week.

Key messages

↗ International prices of wheat and maize remained relatively stable in November, reflecting good supply conditions, while export quotations of rice strengthened amid increased buying interest and currency movements.

↗ In East Africa, prices of cereals in November continued to decline in most countries with the ongoing 2017 harvests and were at levels around or below those a year earlier with a few exceptions. By contrast, in the Sudan, prices surged and reached record highs in some markets, mainly underpinned by the sharp depreciation of the Sudanese Pound in the parallel market.

↗ In Central America, after the sharp increases recorded in the previous month, prices of white maize eased in November as market flows returned to normal, after disruption caused by severe rains in the previous month. Good domestic availabilities kept prices at levels below those a year earlier.

This monthly digest comprises threats and incidents of violence affecting the delivery of humanitarian assistance. It is prepared by Insecurity Insight from information available in open sources.

Global

13 November 2017: Save the Children announced that it had fired 16 staff over reports of sexual violence in the past year. Source:Thomson Reuters Foundation

13 November: Oxfam announced that it had dismissed 22 staff over reports of sexual violence in the year ending April 2017. Source:Thomson Reuters Foundation

Key Messages

• In **West Africa**, regional staple food production during the 2016/17 marketing year was well above average. International rice and wheat imports along with institutional subsidized sales continue to support market supplies. Prices stabilized or began declining after reaching their highest levels of the marketing year in July. Pastoral conditions improved, due to adequate pasture and water availability. Current market anomalies remain concentrated in the eastern marketing basin, including but not limited to: conflict-related market disruptions in the Lake Chad basin, localized above-average grain deficits in Niger, trade disruptions related to the depreciation of the Naira and various government measures.

• In **East Africa**, maize supplies are generally below-average, causing above-average prices across most of the region. Staple food price levels are especially high in South Sudan. Markets remain severely disrupted by insecurity and significant macro-economic issues in Yemen and South Sudan, impeding staple food supply access. Harvests are ongoing in Somalia, Tanzania and Uganda, and are about to begin in Kenya. Supplies are seasonally low in Ethiopia and Sudan as the lean season progresses.

• In **Southern Africa**, maize availability is average to above average following recent regional harvests. Regional maize production estimates for the 2016/17 season are good, with record-high harvests anticipated in South Africa. After reaching very high levels in 2016, maize prices followed seasonal trends in August and are at or below their respective 2016 and average levels many areas. Maize grain is generally able to circulate between surplus and deficit areas without major trade restrictions. Export parity prices are competitive and exports, encouraging exports to East Africa (from Zambia, South Africa, and Malawi) and International markets (from South Africa).

• In **Central America**, markets remained well supplied as the main maize harvest (Primera season) began and imports continued supporting local availability. Maize and bean prices were generally seasonally stable or decreasing, except in Nicaragua where the season is slightly delayed. Staple food prices remain near or below average levels across the region. In **Haiti**, local maize and bean prices continued to ease as the Printemps harvest draws to an end under generally favorable conditions. Imported rice prices were stable while the Haitian gourde maintained relative stability against the USD.  

• Central Asia sustained adequate supplies. Wheat prices generally remained stable in the region. Production forecasts remain largely unchanged from last month. Harvest in Tajikistan will be slightly above last year’s level, similar to last year’s level in Pakistan, and slightly below last year’s level in Kazakhstan and Afghanistan.

• International staple food markets remain well supplied. Rice, maize, wheat and soybean prices fell. Crude oil prices rose but continue to remain well below average levels.

Key Messages

• In West Africa, regional staple food production during the 2016/17 marketing year was well above average. International imports along with institutional subsidized sales supported market supplies. Prices were stable at seasonally high levels as the marketing year concluded in September. Pastoral conditions improved in the eastern and central marketing basins. Market anomalies remain concentrated in the eastern marketing basin, including but not limited to: conflict-related market disruptions in the Lake Chad basin, localized above-average grain deficits in Niger, and trade disruptions related to the depreciation of the Naira and various government measures.

• In East Africa, maize supplies are generally below-average, causing above-average prices across most of the region. Staple food price levels are especially high in South Sudan. Markets remain severely disrupted by insecurity and significant macro-economic issues in Yemen and South Sudan, impeding staple food supply access. Harvests are coming to an edn in Somalia, Tanzania and Uganda, and are about to begin in Kenya. Supplies are seasonally low in Ethiopia and Sudan as the lean season progresses.

• In Southern Africa, maize availability is average to above average following recent above average regional harvests. After reaching very high levels in 2016, maize prices followed seasonal trends in August and are at or below their respective 2016 and average levels many areas. Maize grain is generally able to circulate between surplus and deficit areas without major trade restrictions. Export parity prices are competitive, encouraging exports to East Africa (from Zambia, South Africa, and Malawi) and international markets (from South Africa).

• In Central America, markets remain well supplied as the main maize harvest (Primera season) continued and is estimated to be average to above-average. Maize and bean prices were generally seasonally stable or decreasing, and near or below average levels across the region. In Haiti, local maize and bean supplies began tightening with the start of été season planting. Imported rice prices were mostly stable while the Haitian gourde experienced a moderate depreciation against the USD.

• Central Asia sustained adequate supplies. Wheat prices generally remained stable in the region but declined slightly in exporting countries. The main harvest is nearly complete and production forecasts remain largely unchanged from last month.

• **International **staple food markets remain well supplied. Rice and maize prices fell, wheat prices were generally firm, while soybean prices increased. Crude oil prices rose for the second consecutive month to levels above September 2016 prices.

About Price Watch

Price Watch offers a monthly summary and outlook on global, regional and national trends of key commodity prices in FEWS NET countries. Analysis may touch on global issues, such as fuel prices or exchange rates, if they are likely to influence staple food prices in FEWS NET countries. The accompanying Price Watch Annex details price trends by country.

KEY MESSAGES

• In West Africa, harvests across the Sahel were well underway in October. Aggregate regional staple food production for the 2017/18 marketing year is expected to be average to above average. Locally-produced grain prices declined seasonally in October, as post-harvest market sales and trade flows intensified. Trade opportunities with Nigeria continue to influence livestock market prices heavily in neighboring countries. Market anomalies remain mainly concentrated in the eastern marketing basin, including but not limited to: conflict-related market disruptions in the Lake Chad basin and trade disruptions related to the depreciation of the Naira and various government measures in Nigeria

• In East Africa, markets remain severely disrupted by insecurity and significant macro-economic issues in Yemen and South Sudan, impeding staple food supply access and putting upward pressure on prices. Staple food prices were generally stable, supported with supplies from recent harvests, or began to decline in October with the imminent start of a harvest in most of the region. Livestock prices were mixed, increasing in some markets due to improved body conditions and declining in others because of increased supply during low demand.

• In Southern Africa, maize availability is average to above average following recent above average regional harvests. After reaching very high levels in 2016, maize prices were at or below their respective 2016 and average levels across much of the region in October. Maize grain is generally able to circulate between surplus and deficit areas without major trade restrictions within the region. Export parity prices are competitive, encouraging exports to East Africa (from Zambia,
South Africa, and Malawi) and international markets (from South Africa).

• In Central America,staple food availability remained high as the main maize harvest (Primera season), which is estimated to be average to above-average, came to an end in October. Maize and bean prices were generally seasonally stable or increasing ahead of the Postrera harvest, and near or below average levels across the region. In Haiti, local maize and bean supplies tightened further as été harvests did not result in lower prices. Imported rice prices increased significantly while the Haitian gourde experienced a slight appreciation against the USD.

• Central Asia sustained adequate supplies and intraregional trade is expected to fill regional wheat deficits. Wheat prices remained stable though are below-average in the region’s largest exporter,
Kazakhstan and above-average in Tajikistan.

• International staple food markets remain well supplied. Rice prices fell, wheat prices were mixed, while maize and soybean prices increased.
Crude oil prices rose for the third consecutive month to levels above October 2016 prices.

Poorly distributed rainfall contributes to ongoing moisture deficits in Southern Africa

1. Below-average rainfall has increased moisture deficits and resulted in a drought in eastern Kenya and southern Somalia. With the October-December rainfall season ending, the chance for recovery is very unlikely.

2. While east-central South Africa has benefited aboveaverage rain since late November, northern and westcentral areas of the country report moderate to large moisture deficits over the past thirty days.

3. Although rainfall totals have improved in some areas of southern Madagascar since mid-November, negative vegetation conditions are recorded in many areas.

4. Below-average rain during the past month has resulted in large moisture deficits and below-average vegetation conditions over northwestern Angola. The forecast light rain next week may not be sufficient to offset deficits.

5. Heavy rain during the past week has caused flooding in the Lilongwe, Malawi. Above-average rain is forecast to continue next week, maintaining high risk for flooding

KEY MESSAGES

• In West Africa, regional staple food production for the 2017/18 marketing year is projected to be above average, increasing for the fourth consecutive year. Locally-produced grain prices declined seasonally in November as post-harvest sales and trade flows intensified. Staple food prices remained above average across much of the region. Below average pastoral conditions continue to influence livestock markets in many areas. Market anomalies remain concentrated in the eastern marketing basin, including but not limited to conflict-related market disruptions in the Lake Chad basin, and trade disruptions related to the depreciation of the Naira, and various government measures in Nigeria.

• In East Africa, staple food prices remained above average but were seasonally declining in most of the region with supplies from recent harvests or the imminent start of a harvest. Sorghum prices atypically increased in Sudan and Ethiopia due to delayed harvests. Markets remain severely disrupted by insecurity and significant macro-economic issues in Yemen and South Sudan. Food commodity prices continued to increase in Yemen due to the blockade by the Saudi Coalition in addition to currency depreciation and conflict related trade disruptions. Livestock prices were mixed depending on seasonal availability of pasture and water.

• In Southern Africa, maize supplies across the region were at above-average levels due to above-average domestic supplies. Exportable maize surpluses are high in South Africa and Zambia to satisfy regional and international demand.
  South Africa exported to Japan and Kenya, while Zambia exported to Burundi, Kenya and Rwanda. Maize prices were generally atypically stable across reference markets and levels were significantly below average.

• In Central America, staple food availability remained high with supplies from the recent Primera harvest and the start of the Postrera harvest, which are estimated to be average to above-average. Maize and bean prices were generally seasonally stable and near or below average levels, except in Nicaragua where bean prices increased atypically and were above average. In Haiti, maize prices decreased slightly as more supplies from the été harvest entered the market, while black bean and imported rice prices were stable. Higher demand during the festive period is expected to place upward pressure on December prices for staples such as rice, pigeon peas, and red beans.

• In Central Asia, regional availability and price trends varied considerably. However, regional wheat deficits are expected to be filled through intra-regional trade.
  Wheat grain and flour prices have remained stable but trends vary by country.

• International staple food markets remain well supplied. Rice prices rose slightly while maize, wheat and soybean prices were mostly stable in November 2017. Crude oil prices rose for the fourth consecutive month and are currently at their highest levels in more than two years.

Global Overview DECEMBER 2017

Huthi rebels in Yemen killed their erstwhile ally, former President Saleh, and cracked down on his party, while both the Huthis and the Saudi-led coalition looked set to increase hostilities in January. In Syria, the regime and its allies ramped up their campaign to take territory from jihadist and other rebel groups in the north west, and the de facto leader in Libya’s east disavowed the 2015 political deal, which could lead to more fighting in coming weeks. In Egypt, the military intensified operations in North Sinai against jihadists, who in turn launched more attacks. President Trump’s declaration that the U.S. recognises Jerusalem as Israel’s capital triggered deadly clashes between Palestinian protestors and Israeli security forces, and in Iran over a dozen were reported killed as tens of thousands protested against the regime. In Africa, Cameroon and Ethiopia experienced heightened instability, new fighting in South Sudan could escalate in January, and a ban on unrestricted grazing in Nigeria’s Taraba state could lead to more violence between herders and farmers. In Central America, the political crisis in Honduras saw deadly clashes between opposition supporters and police.